Saturday, December 19

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL

NEW MEXICO BOWL
(at Albuquerque, N.M.)

Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) vs. Fresno State (8-4, 7-4 ATS)

Two teams going in opposite directions kick off the bowl season at University Stadium as slumping Wyoming takes on the red-hot Bulldogs.

Wyoming lost four of six to end the season (4-2 ATS) but edged Colorado State 17-16 in Fort Collins, Colo., in the finale, cashing as a 2½-point underdog and earning itself a postseason bid for the first time in five years. The Cowboys were held to 10 points or less in each of their six losses, getting blanked three times. However, they were plus-7 in turnover margin, which helped them win five games by a touchdown or less and finish fifth in the Mountain West Conference under first-year coach Dave Christensen.

Fresno State wrapped up its regular season with a thrilling 53-52 win in Illinois when the Bulldogs scored with two seconds left and converted the two-point conversion when a tipped pass ended up in the hands of an offensive lineman, who bulled his way into the end zone for the win. Fresno enters this contest having won seven of its last eight games (5-3 ATS), scoring 30 points or more in each of the seven wins.

Wyoming last went bowling in 2004, when it upset UCLA 24-21 in the Las Vegas Bowl as a hefty 12½-point underdog.

This is Fresno State’s second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance and 10th postseason contest in the last 11 years. The Bulldogs, third-place finishers in the Western Athletic Conference, fell to Colorado State 40-35 in last year’s contest, losing outright as two-point favorites. Under 13-year head coach Pat Hill, Fresno State is 5-0 ATS as an underdog in bowl games, but 0-4 ATS as a favorite.

These teams met regularly in the 1990s when both were members of the WAC, with the home team taking each of the last six contests. The most meeting was in 1997 when Fresno State scored a 24-7 home win as a 6½-point chalk.

Wyoming’s offense is 112th in the nation (out of 120), managing just 298.7 total yards per game, and 111th in the country in scoring at just 16.9 points per contest. Defensively, the Cowboys are give up 395.1 total ypg, which ranks 82nd.

The Bulldogs rush for 231.6 ypg, the seventh-highest total in Division I-A, with RB Ryan Mathews doing the bulk of the damage, as he led the nation at 151.3 rushing ypg. Fresno scored 30 points or more in 10 of its 12 games, averaging 34.3 points per game, good for 14th nationally.

Wyoming is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 14-6 in non-conference games, 4-1 agaisnt WAC schools, 27-13 after a spread-cover and 6-2 as an underdog, but it is just 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are on ATS skids of 8-22 as a favorite, 1-6 against Mountain West teams and 9-26 on grass.

The Cowboys have stayed below the posted total in 13 of 19 non-conference games, but topped the total in five of seven against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Fresno State is on “over” runs of 6-2 in bowl games and 5-2 in December.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
(at St. Petersburg, Fla.)

Central Florida (8-4, 9-2 ATS) vs. Rutgers (8-4, 6-6 ATS)

Playing what is virtually a home game, Central Florida doesn’t have far to travel as it battles Rutgers at Tropicana Field.

Central Florida lost its first two Conference USA games, then won the final six league contests in a row (5-1 ATS) to finish second in the East Division and earn this bowl bid. The Knights went to UAB in the regular-season finale and scored a 34-27 win as a three-point road favorite.

Rutgers finished in a three-way tie for fourth in the Big East, with losses coming to Pitt, West Virginia and Cincinnati – the league’s top three teams – as well as Syracuse. Despite falling to West Virginia 24-21 as a two-point home chalk in their finale, the Scarlet Knights are on a 4-2 SU and ATS run, winning three of four on the highway.

Central Florida is back in the postseason after going 4-8 last year. The Knights have never won a bowl game, suffering narrow losses to Mississippi State (10-3 in the 2007 Liberty Bowl) and Nevada (49-48 in the 2005 Hawaii Bowl) in their first two tries. Meanwhile, Rutgers is in its fifth straight bowl, having won each of the last three, including last year’s 29-23 victory over North Carolina State in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, pushing as a six-point favorite.

This is the first-ever meeting between these schools. However, Central Florida has lost 15 straight games to Big East opponents.

UCF’s strength is on defense, which ranks fifth nationally in sacks (3.1 per game) and fourth against the run (82.5 rushing ypg allowed). Meanwhile, Rutgers RB Joe Martinek paced the offense with 923 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, with freshman QB Tom Savage throwing for 1,917 yards, 12 TDs and six INTs. Rutgers averaged 27.5 points a game this season, while allowing just 17.4.

UCF is just 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 against Big East teams and just 13-27-1 ATS in its last 31 non-conference games, but the team is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-0 away from home, 6-1 as underdogs, 4-0 this season on artificial turf and 8-3 after a straight-up win.

Rutgers is on modest ATS streaks of 3-0-1 in bowl games, 4-1-1 in December, 4-1 against Conference USA teams and 3-1-1 in non-conference action.

For Central Florida, the under is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference games, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-2 after a straight-up win.

The Scarlet Knights are on “under” runs of 8-3 overall, 6-0 in non-conference action, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 as a favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports and MSNBC. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com