Thursday, December 17

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NFL

Indianapolis (13-0, 9-4 ATS) at Jacksonville (7-6, 5-8 ATS)

The Colts, who have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, continue their march toward a perfect season when they travel to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium to face the Jaguars.

Indianapolis raced out to a 21-0 lead against Denver on Sunday, then held off a second-half Broncos rally in winning 28-16 as a 6½-point home chalk, cashing for the fourth straight week. With the win, the Colts not only wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the set an NFL record with their 22nd consecutive regular-season victory. Indianapolis continues to roll on offense, ranking fourth in total yards at 384.4 per game and fifth in scoring at 27.6 points per game. Also, QB Peyton Manning (29 TDs, 14 INTs) leads the No. 1 passing attack (296.4 ypg), though he threw three INTs last week. Indy also boasts the league’s No. 2 scoring defense, yielding just 16.7 ppg.

The unknown for the Colts this week is how long first-year coach Jim Caldwell will keep his starters in. Caldwell has said his healthy first-stringers will start, but didn’t specify if or when he will start substituting with replacements.

Jacksonville’s playoff hopes took a big blow with a 14-10 home loss to Miami on Sunday as a three-point chalk, its third ATS setback in the last four games (2-2 SU). The Jags’ major issue has been an inability to score points, as they average just 18.1 ppg (23rd) while allowing four points more at 22.1 ppg (20th). Jacksonville has been held to 18 points or less seven times, losing six of those games.

Indianapolis narrowly topped Jacksonville 14-12 in Week 1, failing to cover as a 6½-point home chalk while winning SU for the fourth time in five games in this AFC South rivalry (2-3 ATS). The road team has cashed in five consecutive meetings, with Indy going 3-1-1 ATS on its last five trips to Jacksonville.

The Colts are 14-7-1 ATS during their 22-game regular-season win streak), and they are on a bundle of additional pointspread upswings, including 4-1 overall (all as a chalk, and all against the AFC), 6-0-1 on Thursday night, 15-5-1 on the highway, 5-0 as a road chalk and 4-0 in December.

The Jaguars have covered in four of their last five AFC South contests and are on an 11-4-1 ATS roll as a home pup. However, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 2-7 overall, 3-12 at home, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-6 in December and 3-7 following a SU loss.

The over is 5-2 in Indianapolis’ last seven Thursday games and 12-5-2 in Jacksonville’s last 19 contests against winning teams, and the total has gone high six of the last eight times these teams have met in Florida. However, the under is 5-1 in the Colts’ last six division tilts, and the Jags are on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 in December and 4-1 as a ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports, MSNBC and The Sporting News. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com