Monday, May 24

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (24-21) at Tampa Bay (32-12)

The Red Sox, winners of five of their last six, head to Tropicana Field for a key three-game set with right-hander Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) on the hill opposite the Rays’ Wade Davis (4-3, 3.35).

Boston took two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s 8-3 victory. Still, the Red Sox remain just 4-7 in their last 11 road games and 8-20 in their last 28 on the road against teams with a winning percentage of .600.

Tampa, which has the best record in baseball and leads Boston by 8½ games in the A.L. East, has won eight of its last nine, including four of five on a road trip that ended Sunday with a 10-6 win in Houston. The Rays are on several hot streaks, including 38-14 overall, 123-56 at home, 23-6 against A.L. East teams and 12-5 in series openers.

The Rays swept a four-game set in mid-April in Boston, dominating the Red Sox in outscoring them 24-9. Also, the Rays have taken 17 of the last 23 series clashes in Tampa (playoffs included).

Buchholz is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three road starts this season, allowing just four earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. He’s coming off Wednesday’s 3-2 home win over Minnesota, allowing two runs on five hits in eight innings, striking out seven and walking just one. With Buchholz on the hill, the Red Sox are just 2-8 on the road against winning teams, but 7-0 in his last seven road starts, 7-0 in his last seven series openers, 9-3 in his last 12 after four days off and 7-3 in his last 10 against A.L. East teams.

Buccholz faced the Rays on April 17 and gave up four runs (none earned) on three hits over five innings, but suffered the 6-5 home loss. He’s 2-2 with a 2.01 ERA in five career starts versus Tampa

Davis beat the Yankees on Wednesday in the Bronx, giving up two runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings of a 10-6 victory. Tampa has won five of his last seven starts, including an April 16 win in Boston when he gave up one run on two hits over five innings of a 3-1 victory. In his only previous career start against the Red Sox – last September at Fenway Park – Davis got rocked, allowing eight runs in 2 2/3 innings of a 9-1 loss.

Davis is 2-2 with a 4.12 ERA in four starts at The Trop this season.

For the Red Sox, the under is on surges of 23-7-1 as road ‘dogs, 33-17-3 as ‘dogs anywhere and 4-1-1 when Buchholz starts as a pup, but they are on “over” runs of 5-0 on Monday, 5-2-2 in series openers, 8-3-1 in Buchholz’s last 12 starts overall and 4-1 when Buchholz pitches on Monday.

Tampa has stayed below the total in 15 of 22 overall, eight straight at home, five of seven in series openers and 35 of 55 at home against losing teams, but the Rays are also on “over” streaks of 10-3 on Monday and 5-1 against A.L. East teams.

Finally, in this rivalry, the over has cashed in three of the last four matchups in Florida.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports and MSNBC. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations plus watch his Free Pick Daily Video report at PickNation.com