Tuesday, March 30

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NIT
(at New York City)

Dayton (23-12, 16-15-1 ATS) vs. Ole Miss (24-10, 18-11-1 ATS)

The NIT Final Four kicks off at Madison Square Garden where Dayton shoots for its third straight victory away from home when it battles the Rebels.

The Flyers stumbled down the stretch in the Atlantic 10, losing six of their final nine games (1-7-1 ATS). However, they’ve taken advantage of a second season in the NIT, posting three impressive victories by an average of 14 points per game. After crushing Illinois State at home (63-42 as a seven-point favorite) in the opening round, Dayton went to nearby Cincinnati last Monday and rolled 81-66 as a three-point pup followed by Wednesday’s 77-71 upset win at Illinois, again as a three-point underdog.

Ole Miss needed double-overtime to outlast Texas Tech last Tuesday, winning 90-87 but falling way short as an nine-point home favorite. Including previous NIT blowout home wins over Troy (84-65) and Memphis (90-81), the Rebels arrive in the Big Apple having won seven of their last eight games (6-2 ATS). However, the one loss came in their most recent neutral-site contest, a 76-65 setback to Tennessee (as a 2½-point ‘dog) in the SEC tournament.

Despite the consecutive upsets of Cincinnati and Illinois, Dayton is still just 7-10 away from home this year (2-3 in neutral-site games). Ole Miss is 9-6 on the highway (3-2 at neutral venues). In their five neutral-site games, both the Flyers and Rebels are shooting 44.6 percent from the field and holding opponents to 42.2 percent. However, Ole Miss has outscored its five neutral-site opponents by 3.2 ppg (79.6-76.2) while Dayton has averaged 70.0 ppg and allowed 69.8.

The Flyers have now cashed in seven consecutive non-conference games, and they’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight at neutral sites and five of their last six on Tuesday.

Ole Miss is on pointspread upticks of 6-2 overall, 5-2 in non-league action and 14-6 after a non-cover.

Dayton has stayed under the total in seven of nine non-conference contests and four of five on Tuesday. However, the over is on runs of 5-1 for the Flyers overall, 5-1 for the Flyers after a SU win, 3-1-1 for Ole Miss at neutral sites and 10-2 for Ole Miss on Tuesday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS and OVER

North Carolina (19-16, 12-21 ATS) vs. Rhode Island (26-9, 14-17-1 ATS)

One year after winning its fifth national championship, North Carolina is once again competing in a Final Four, only this time it’s the NIT as it takes on the upstart Rams.

After going just 5-12 in the ACC season – winning consecutive games just once – the Tar Heels have ripped off three straight NIT victories, all in narrow fashion. It started with an 80-72 victory over William & Mary, falling just short as a nine-point home favorite, followed by road upsets of Mississippi State (76-74 as a 7½-point underdog) and UAB (60-55 as a 4½-point pup). It’s the first time since the calendar flipped to 2010 that North Carolina has won three straight games, and the Heels haven’t had a four-game win streak since starting the season 4-0.

Rhode Island jumped out to a 19-3 start, then closed out the regular season by losing five of seven. However, since the Atlantic 10 tournament tipped off, the Rams are 5-1, alternating spread-covers in those six games. Rhode Island began the NIT with a pair of home wins over Northwestern (76-64 as a six-point favorite) and Nevada (85-83 as an 8½-point chalk), then went to Virginia Tech on Wednesday and knocked off the Hokies 79-72 as a 6½-point road underdog.

While the Tar Heels cashed in their two upset wins over Ole Miss and UAB to get to New York, they haven’t had three straight ATS wins all season. Additionally, they’re in pointspread slumps of 7-16 overall, 3-10 as an underdog, 1-8 as a pup of less than seven points, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-5 after a spread-cover. On the bright side, UNC has cashed in seven of 10 neutral-site outings, 45 of 64 non-conference games and five of seven on Tuesday.

The Rams have covered in four of five outside the Atlantic 10, but they’re in ATS funks of 7-12-1 overall, 3-10-1 after a SU win and 7-19-2 after a spread-cover.

Both squads have been involved in a plethora of low-scoring games recently. The Tar Heels are on “under” runs of 19-7 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a pup of less than seven points, 5-2 as a neutral-site pup, 5-1 on Tuesday, 6-1 after a SU win and 13-3 after an ATS setback. Meanwhile, Rhode Island carries “under” trends of 7-0 at neutral sites, 5-0 as a favorite at neutral sites, 4-1 when laying less than seven points anywhere and 11-5 after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT

Pacific (23-11, 17-15 ATS) at Missouri State (23-12, 16-19 ATS)

Pacific tries to end it season with a seventh consecutive road victory when it travels to the Hammons Student Center in Springfield, Mo., to battle the Bears in the College Insider championship game.

The Tigers have won six of their last seven overall SU and ATS, and going back to Feb. 17 they’ve won and covered six straight road games. Pacific has been forced to hit the highway for all three games of this tournament, toppling Loyola Marymount (86-76 as a one-point chalk), Northern Colorado (63-59 as a two-point underdog) and Appalachian State (64-56 as a five-point pup). Throw in three Big West road wins over Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton and Cal State Northridge, and the Tigers have won six in a row on the road by an average of 13.2 ppg.

Missouri State has won six of its last eight games, but is just 2-6 ATS during this stretch. The Bears have been at home since this tournament started, first knocking off Middle Tennessee State (87-79 as a nine-point chalk) and Louisiana Tech (69-40 as a 7½-point favorite). They reached the championship game by upending Missouri Valley Conference rival Creighton 67-61 Wednesday, coming up just shy as a 6½-point favorite.

The Tigers are now 12-6 (10-8 ATS) in true road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.1 ppg (66.1-60) while shooting 46 percent from the field and holding opponents to 39.8 percent. Missouri State is 17-2 on its home floor, but just 10-9 ATS, averaging 73.4 ppg (45.8 percent shooting) and limiting visitors to 62.4 ppg (41.7 percent).

Pacific has cashed in six of seven overall, six straight on the highway, four straight as a ‘dog of less than seven points, six straight on the road against teams with a winning home record and four of five against winning teams. However, the Tigers are still just 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 as a road pup.

The Bears sport nothing but negative ATS trends, including 1-5 overall, 2-5 at home (all as a favorite, 1-5 as a home chalk of less than seven points, 4-9 after a SU win, 15- against winning teams and 1-4-1 on Tuesday.

The Tigers are on “under” runs of 5-2 on the road and 4-0 as an underdog (all on the road), while Missouri State has stayed low in five of six at home (all as a favorite of less than seven points) and six of eight after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PACIFIC and UNDER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports and MSNBC. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com