Thursday, December 31

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL

ARMED FORCES BOWL
(at Fort Worth, Texas)

Air Force (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Houston (10-3, 8-4 ATS)

The Cougars make the short road trip north to Amon G. Carter Stadium on the TCU campus to face Air Force for the third time since the beginning of the 2008 season and the second straight year in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Houston got out of the gate with a 3-0 SU start (2-0 ATS) this year to break into the Top 25, including a shocking 45-35 win at Oklahoma State as a 15½-point underdog. The Cougars were then dealt a 58-41 upset loss laying 14½ points at Texas-El Paso, but they entered the Conference USA championship game against East Carolina on a 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) tear. In the title game, played on East Carolina’s home field, Houston came up short 38-32 as a one-point road chalk.

Air Force was 3-3 SU (2-3 ATS) through its first six games, then went on a 4-1 SU and ATS run to get bowl-eligible out of the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons finished the year with a 38-21 loss at Brigham Young as an eight-point underdog, halting a 4-0 ATS run, but they still earned the opportunity for a bowl rematch with Houston.

Last year, Air Force grabbed a 31-28 regular-season victory as a 2½-point pup in a game that was moved from Houston to Dallas due to Hurricane Ike. The Cougars avenged that loss with a 34-28 victory in the Armed Forces Bowl as a four-point chalk, giving the SU winner a 2-0 ATS mark in those two contests.

Houston is in the postseason for the fifth straight year, with last season’s Armed Forces win halting an 0-3 SU and ATS bowl skid. The Cougars haven’t won consecutive postseason contests since 1979-80. Meanwhile, Air Force is in its third straight bowl game under coach Troy Calhoun, looking to halt an 0-2 SU and ATS purge.

Houston has the No. 1 total offense in the nation at 581.1 ypg, the No. 1 passing attack at a stunning 449.8 ypg and the No. 2 scoring offense at 43.9 ppg. QB Case Keenum has completed 71 percent of his passes for a whopping 5,447 passing yards, with 43 TDs against just nine INTs. WR James Cleveland (101 catches, 1,182 yards, 14 TDs) leads a group of five Cougars with at least 500 receiving yards. On the downside, the Cougars defense was a weak link all year, giving up 442.7 ypg (108th) and 28.8 ppg.

Air Force, not surprisingly, relies on its running attack, which is third in the country at 273.6 ypg for an offense that totals 355.9 ypg and 28.2 ppg. RBs Jared Tew (797 yards, 7 TDs) and Asher Clark (736 yards, 5 TDs) combined for 1,533 rushing yards, and five other Falcons runners have at least 200 yards apiece. Air Force is also superb on the other side of the ball, sporting the nation’s No. 1 pass defense (148.7 ypg), No. 10 total defense (284.8 ypg) and No. 9 scoring defense (15.3 ppg).

The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral-site games, but they are on ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 in non-conference action and 4-1 on Thursday. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-7 against winning teams and 2-6 from the underdog role.

Houston is on “over” tears of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 9-2 against winning teams and 5-2 in December, and the over for Air Force is on rolls of 4-0 overall and 6-2 in December. However, the under for the Cougars is on stretches of 4-0 following a SU loss and 4-1 in non-conference games, and the under for the Falcons is on streaks of 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 in non-conference play and 5-1 with Air Force a pup.

Finally, the bowl game last year fell short of the posted price (66), while the regular-season matchup between these two went over the total (51½).

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON

SUN BOWL
(at El Paso, Texas)

(19) Stanford (8-4, 7-5 ATS) vs. Oklahoma (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS)

Stanford, back in a bowl game for the first time since the 2001 season, heads to Sun Bowl Stadium in West Texas to take on the Sooners, who are noticeably absent from a BCS bowl this year.

The Cardinal made a serious run at the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth in a season that included a shocking 55-21 road beatdown of Southern Cal as a 10½-point underdog. However, the week after that stunning blowout, they lost at home to archrival California 34-28 as a seven-point favorite, halting their conference title and BCS bowl hopes. Stanford bounced back immediately to drop Notre Dame 45-38 in overtime as a 10-point home chalk in the season finale to finish the regular season on a 4-1 SU run (3-2 ATS).

Oklahoma, which has been in a BCS bowl eight of the past nine years out of the Big 12, had to go almost the entire season without Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford and suffered a significant drop-off. The Sooners lost the season opener to Brigham Young 14-13 as a whopping 22½-point favorite, with Bradford injuring his shoulder in the first half. He was out five weeks and played in only two more games before reinjuring the shoulder in the first quarter of a 16-13 loss to Texas and calling it a year.

Oklahoma’s longest win streak of the season was just two games (twice), and it finished the season by alternating SU wins and losses over its last five games (2-3 ATS), though the Sooners capped it with a 27-0 home rout of rival and 12th-ranked Oklahoma State as an eight-point chalk.

These teams haven’t met since 1984 and have squared off just four times overall. Oklahoma is 3-1 SU in those contests, and Stanford is 3-1 ATS.

Stanford last played in the postseason in the Seattle Bowl in 2001, losing 24-16 as a six-point chalk against Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Oklahoma played for the national championship last year, losing to Florida 24-14 as a 4½-point ‘dog in the BCS title game, its third consecutive SU and ATS postseason setback (a school record). The Sooners are in a bowl for a school-record 11th straight year, all under coach Bob Stoops, but they’ve gone just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS in the previous 10, including a current 1-5 SU and ATS dive in which all five losses were by at least a touchdown.

The Cardinal are putting up 441.1 ypg this year (13th), including a running game that averages 224.3 ypg (11th). Star RB Toby Gerhart, who finished second in the Heisman voting, led the way by rushing for 1,722 yards and a whopping 26 TDs for a squad that averaged 36.2 ppg (10th). That said, Stanford gave up its share of yards and points, allowing 26.2 ppg and 396.5 ypg.

Stanford likely will be without injured starting QB Andrew Luck, who passed for 2,575 yards with a solid 13-5 TD-to-INT ratio. Former starter Tavita Pritchard would start in Luck’s place.

The Sooners averaged 419.4 ypg (278.5 passing, 140.9 rushing), and with Bradford hurt the offense was mostly in the hands of redshirt freshman QB Landry Jones (2,780 passing yards, 23 TDs, 13 INTs). Oklahoma made a much bigger mark defensively, rating seventh in the nation in three categories: total yards allowed (273.5 ypg), rushing yards allowed (88.6) and points allowed (13.7). In fact, the Sooners held nine opponents to 16 points or less.

The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference contests, but they are on ATS upswings of 4-1 in December and 5-2 following a pointspread loss. Oklahoma is on ATS skids of 1-5 as a bowl chalk, 1-4-1 at neutral sites and 0-4-1 following a SU win, though the Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five December outings and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four against the Pac-10.

The over for Stanford is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-0 against winning teams and 6-1 with the Cardinal a pup. On the flip side, the under for Oklahoma is on sprees of 11-2 overall, 5-0 outside the Big 12, 8-1 in December, 9-2 with the Sooners favored, 9-2 against winning teams and 7-3 in the postseason.

ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD

TEXAS BOWL
(at Houston)

Navy (9-4, 6-6 ATS) vs. Missouri (8-4, 4-7 ATS)

Missouri aims to finish the season on a four-game winning streak when it travels to the Lone Star State to face Navy at Reliant Stadium.

The Tigers won their first four games of the season (3-1 ATS), then went on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid that killed their Big 12 North title chances. However, they finished strong by winning their last three games (1-2 ATS in lined action), including a 41-39 victory over archrival Kansas as a 3½-point road chalk on Nov. 28 in the regular-season finale. Missouri put up 32 points or more in each of its last five games.

Navy won six of its first eight games (5-3 ATS), then went a more modest 3-2 SU over its last five, failing to cash in three of its last four regular-season lined contests. The Midshipmen finished with a 17-3 victory against archrival Army on Dec. 12, falling just short of covering as an overwhelming 14½-point chalk on neutral turf at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.

These teams have met just three times, with Missouri winning all three games, but the last of those clashes came in the 1960 Orange Bowl, won by the Tigers 21-14.

Missouri returns to Texas for the second straight postseason, after beating Northwestern 30-23 in overtime in last year’s Alamo Bowl. The Tigers fell short as a hefty 14-point chalk in that contest, marking the first time in their last four bowl appearances that they failed to cash (3-1 SU and ATS). Navy is going bowling for the seventh straight year and is currently on a 4-1 postseason ATS run (2-3 SU), with the lone pointspread setback coming in last year’s 29-19 loss to Wake Forest as a three-point pup in the Eagle Bank Bowl.

Missouri averaged 30.3 points and 417.2 yards per game this season, leaning heavily on sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert, who piled up 3,302 passing yards for an offense that ranked 13th nationally in passing (285 ypg). Gabbert had 23 TDS and just seven INTs, and wideout Danario Alexander (1,644 yards, 13 TDs, 15.4 ypc) was the chief target. Defensively, Mizzou allowed 24.6 points and 358 total yards per contest, and the Tigers ranked 12th in rushing defense (96.4 ypg).

Navy sported the nation’s fourth-best rushing attack, at a whopping 272.5 ypg for an offense that averaged 27.5 points and 343.8 total yards per outing. QB Ricky Dobbs was the lynchpin, rushing for 1,045 yards and an eye-popping 24 TDs, and passing for another 901 yards and five TDs. The Middies yielded just 19.9 ppg (20th in the nation) and 333.6 total ypg.

Mizzou is on ATS surges of 9-3 outside the Big 12 and 12-3 laying 3½ to 10 points, but it also carries negative ATS streaks of 2-6 overall, 1-8 against winning teams, 1-4 at neutral sites and 2-7 in December. The Midshipmen are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 in Thursday contests and 8-3 in December, but they finished the regular season in a 2-4 ATS funk and are 1-3 ATS in their last four games when following a SU win.

The under is on streaks of 4-0 overall for Navy, 5-0 in non-conference play for Missouri and 6-1 for Mizzou against winning teams. However, the over for the Tigers is on rolls of 4-1 overall (all as a chalk) and 5-2 at neutral sites, and the Middies are on “over” upticks of 5-0 in bowl season, 4-0 as a bowl pup and 6-1 as a neutral-field ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

INSIGHT BOWL
(at Tempe, Ariz.)

Iowa State (6-6, 7-4 ATS) vs. Minnesota (6-6, 5-6 ATS)

Two teams muddling along with a .500 record take the field at Sun Devil Stadium when Iowa State faces the Gophers in a Big 12-Big Ten contest.

Iowa State made it to the postseason despite losing three of its last four games (2-2 ATS), including a 34-24 setback at Missouri in the Nov. 21 finale, though it covered as a hefty 15-point underdog. The Cyclones upended Nebraska 9-7 on the road Oct. 24 as a whopping 20½-point ‘dog for their signature win in an otherwise mediocre season, as the Huskers ultimately reached and nearly won the Big 12 title game.

Minnesota won its first two games of the year (1-1 ATS), then couldn’t put together back-to-back wins the rest of the season and finished on a 2-4 SU skid (2-3 ATS in lined action). The Gophers’ last game was also Nov. 21, a 12-0 loss at Iowa in which they narrowly cashed as a 12½-point pup to end the year on a 3-1 ATS upswing.

Iowa State and Minnesota, located just 215 miles apart, used to meet regularly in the early 1900s, but they’ve played just three times since 1989, with the Gophers going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, Minnesota rolled 53-29 as a 9½-point home favorite in September 1997.

The Cyclones are in a bowl game for the first time since 2004, when they beat Miami (Ohio) 17-13 as a one-point chalk in the Independence Bowl, and this will be just the ninth postseason appearance overall for the program. One of those was in the 2000 Insight bowl, as Iowa State topped Pittsburgh 37-29 as a three-point underdog.

The Gophers are in the Insight Bowl for the third time in four years. They lost 44-41 in overtime to Texas Tech in 2006 as an eight-point ‘dog, and got bounced 42-21 last year by Kansas State catching 7½ points. Minnesota is in a bowl game for the ninth time in 11 years.

Iowa State’s offense averaged 359.4 ypg, with an almost equal pass-run balance (182.2 passing ypg, 177.2 rushing ypg), as RB Alexander Robinson netted 1,056 yards and five TDs on the ground. But the Cyclones averaged just 21.1 ppg (102nd). Defensively, Iowa State allowed 22.6 ppg despite yielding a whopping 414.3 ypg (169.3 rushing ypg).

Minnesota gained just 295.8 ypg this year (113th), including a meager 97.6 rushing ypg (112th), and wasn’t far ahead of Iowa State in scoring, at just 21.6 ppg (98th). The Gophers’ defense gave up 24.6 points and 364.2 yards per contest.

Iowa State is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 10-2 against the Big Ten and 5-1 following a SU loss, but the Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday starts and 0-4 ATS as a pup of up to three points. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a chalk of three points or less, but the Gophers are on ATS purges of 0-4 as a bowl favorite, 1-6 after a spread-cover and 2-7 in non-conference action.

Iowa State is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 3-0-1 in bowl games, 5-0 against the Big Ten and 5-1 following a spread-cover, and the under is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last five Thursday starts and 7-3 in the Gophers’ last 10 as a favorite. However, Minnesota is also on “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in the postseason and 10-3 outside the Big Ten.

ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA STATE

CHICK FIL-A BOWL
(at Atlanta)

Tennessee (7-5 SU and ATS) vs. (12) Virginia Tech (9-3, 7-5 ATS)

Surging Virginia Tech, in a bowl game for the 17th consecutive year, heads to Atlanta to face the Lane Kiffin-coached Volunteers, who are back in the postseason after missing out last year.

Virginia Tech fell to current No. 1-ranked Alabama 34-24 as a six-point pup in the season opener at the Georgia Dome, then rolled up five straight victories before a midseason stumble dropped it out of ACC title contention and the BCS picture. However, after losses at Georgia Tech and to North Carolina, the Hokies put the pedal down in their last four games, winning SU and ATS in blowout fashion, with no game closer than 13 points. In the Nov. 28 finale at rival Virginia, Va-Tech rumbled to a 42-13 pasting as a 14-point chalk.

Tennessee, in its first year under Kiffin, lost three of its first five games and was at 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) before turning things around to get bowl-eligible out of the SEC. The Vols won four of their last five (3-2 ATS), finishing the regular season with a 30-24 overtime victory at Kentucky as a three-point favorite. Tennessee also gave Alabama a tough battle, losing 12-10 on the road as a hefty 14-point underdog on Oct. 24. In that contest, the Vols had a game-winning field-goal attempt blocked as time expired.

These teams have met seven times, dating all the way back to 1896. However, the last clash was in 1994, when Tennessee posted a 45-23 rout as a seven-point chalk in the Gator Bowl.

The Hokies dumped Cincinnati 20-7 in the Orange Bowl last season as a 2½-point pup, but in their current 16-season bowl run – all under coach Frank Beamer – they are just 7-9 SU and ATS. Meanwhile, in their last postseason appearance two years ago, the Vols edged Wisconsin 21-17 as a 2½-point chalk in the Outback Bowl. Tennessee is in the postseason for the 19th time in the last 21 seasons.

Virginia Tech is putting up 31.4 points and 388.2 yards per game, with much of it coming from the nation’s 15th-best running attack (206.4 ypg). Freshman RB Ryan Williams has piled up 1,538 yards (5.7 ypc) and 18 TDs on the ground, including a whopping four TDs in each of his last two games. The Hokies also have a stout defense, ranking 11th in points allowed (15.8 per game), 14th in total defense (300.1 ypg) and sixth against the pass (161.4 ypg).

Kiffin has Tennessee’s offense averaging 395.6 ypg (225.6 passing, 170 rushing), paced by RB Montario Hardesty’s 1,302 rushing yards (4.9 ypc) and 12 TDs. QB Jonathan Crompton (2,565 passing yards) started slow but finished with a solid senior campaign, tossing 26 TDs against just 12 INTs for a unit that averaged 30.6 ppg. Like Va-Tech, Tennessee rates well in total defense (308.8 ypg, 18th) and passing defense (165.9 ypg, 11th), while yielding 21 ppg (27th).

Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five as a bowl chalk and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 non-conference affairs. However, along with its current 4-0 ATS run (all as a chalk), the Hokies are on ATS surges of 4-1 after a SU win, 8-3 against winning teams and 16-5 on Thursday. Tennessee is on ATS upswings of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 as an underdog, but the Vols are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games outside the SEC and 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points.

For Virginia Tech, the under is on a bundle of runs, including 5-1 overall (all as a chalk), 12-0 on Thursday, 5-1 against winning teams, 8-2 after a spread-cover and 13-6 following a SU win. Likewise, the under for Tennessee is on tears of 5-0 in bowl games, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-0 against the ACC, 9-2 with the Vols a ‘dog, 10-4-1 after a SU win and 38-18-3 coming off a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports and MSNBC. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com