Wednesday, September 30

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Florida (84-74) at Atlanta (86-71)

Javier Vazquez (15-9, 2.83 ERA) looks to keep the streaking Braves in the N.L. wild-card race as he pitches opposite the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco (12-9, 5.28) in the finale of a three-game series at Turner Field.

Atlanta had a season-high seven-game winning streak snapped in Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to Florida, a costly setback that dropped the Braves three games behind wild-card leading Colorado, which got a walk-off 7-5, 11-inning victory over Milwaukee. Still, Atlanta is on runs of 15-3 overall (5-3 at home), 11-3 against the N.L. East, 13-2 as a favorite, 13-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1 in the third game of a series.

Florida has split its last 18 games, a slump that has dropped the team 5½ games out in the wild-card standings. The Marlins are otherwise on positive streaks of 8-4 on the road, 12-6 in N.L. East play, 6-1 as an underdog and 5-0 on Wednesday.

The Marlins hold a slim 9-8 edge in the season series with Atlanta, and the road team has won 10 of the 17 contests. However, dating back several years, Florida is in an 18-36 rut at Turner Field (5-3 this year).

Nolasco has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and he’s got a 39-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this stretch, including 17-2 in his last two outings. The right-hander pitched seven innings on Friday against the Mets, yielding three runs on four hits, but got a no-decision as the Marlins lost 6-5. Nolasco is 7-5 despite a hefty 5.54 ERA on the road this year.

Florida is 5-2 in Nolasco’s last five starts on the highway and 7-3 in his last 10 against divisional foes, but the Marlins have lost six of Nolasco’s last eight starts against the Braves, going 0-4 in Atlanta. For his career, he’s 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) versus the Braves (1-0, 4.67 ERA in three starts this year).

Vazquez is 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last four trips to the hill (three runs allowed in 32 innings), including a pair of complete games, the most recent coming Friday at Washington when the veteran right-hander scattered three hits and a run in a 4-1 victory. However, Vazquez is just 5-7 at home this season despite a 2.85 ERA, and the Braves are just 7-8 when he pitches at Turner Field, averaging less than four runs per game.

Vazquez is 6-7 with a 4.88 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts) against the Marlins, including 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in four starts this season (three of which the Braves lost). In fact, Vazquez has faced Florida 10 times with three different teams since 2002, and the Marlins are 8-2.

With Nolasco pitching, the Marlins are on “over” surges of 6-1 overall, 8-2 on Wednesday, 4-0 against the N.L. East and 4-0 when he faces the Braves in Atlanta. Similarly, the “over” behind Vazquez is on runs of 8-3-2 overall, 3-1-1 on Wednesday and 4-0-1 when pitching on four days’ rest, but the under is still 6-2-2 in Vazquez’s last 10 outings at Turner Field.

The under is 6-1-1 in Florida’s last eight road games, and Atlanta is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall (all against divisional foes), 4-2 against right-handed starters and 10-5-1 at home against teams with a winning record. Finally, the under is 6-3-1 in the last nine Braves-Marlins battles at Turner Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (82-75) at Detroit (84-73)

The Twins face a virtual must-win situation tonight at Comerica Park as they send Carl Pavano (13-11, 4.86 ERA) the mound in the third game of a four-game set against the Tigers, who will hand the ball to Eddie Bonine (0-1, 4.60).

These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, with the Twins earning a 3-2, 10-inning victory in the opener and the Tigers holding on for a 6-5 win in the nightcap. With the split, Detroit continues to lead the A.L. Central by two games over Minnesota.

The Twins have used an 12-3 surge to climb back into the playoff race. They’re on additional runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 on Wednesday, 11-2 on the road versus right-handed starters, 8-1 as a favorite and 17-6 in A.L. Central games.

Detroit has followed up a 3-9 slump by winning six of its last nine. Jim Leyland’s squad is 34-16 in its last 50 home games.

The Twins are 10-6 against Detroit this season, with the host taking 11 of the 16 meetings.

Pavano earned a 9-4 victory at Kansas City on Friday, yielding all four runs in six innings. That ended a string of six consecutive quality starts in which he gave up two earned runs or fewer four times. The Twins are unbeaten in Pavano’s last four trips to the mound, and they’re 5-1 in his last six road efforts. For the season, Pavano is 9-6 with a 4.84 ERA in 18 starts on the highway, including 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in six road efforts since being traded to the Twins in early August.

Pavano has faced the Tigers twice since joining Minnesota, pitching seven shutout innings in an 11-0 road win on Aug. 8 (his first start with the Twins), then yielding two runs on 11 hits in seven innings on Sept. 19, getting a no-decision in Minnesota’s 6-2 victory. In fact, all five of Pavano’s career starts against Detroit have come this season, and he’s 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA (3-0, 1.61 ERA in three games at Comerica Park).

Bonine has made two starts this month, allowing five runs (three earned) in 11 2/3 innings, with the Tigers beating the Royals 4-3 at home on Sept. 16, then losing 2-0 at the White Sox on Friday. Going back to last year, Detroit has won five straight games behind Bonine at home, where the right-hander has a 5.40 ERA in 15 innings (two starts, two relief appearances) in 2009. Bonine’s only career outing against the Twins came last July, and he survived just 2 2/3 innings, yielding five runs (two earned) in a 7-0 road loss.

As a team, Minnesota is on “under” surges of 20-7-4 overall, 14-5-3 against right-handed starters, 8-3-2 on Wednesday, 12-4-2 as a chalk and 3-1-2 in Pavano’s last six starts, though the Twins have topped the total in five of seven on the road (all within the division). Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 5-2 overall (all against the A.L. Central) and 7-2 at home. However, the under is 6-1 in Bonine’s last seven starts dating to last season.

Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall, but the over is 4-2-1 in the last seven series clashes at Comerica Park.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports, MSNBC and The Sporting News. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com