Monday, August 31

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta (68-62) at Florida (68-62)

Braves rookie Kenshin Kawakami (6-10, 4.08 ERA) makes what is likely his final start before being bumped to the bullpen as Atlanta travels to Land Shark Stadium to face the Marlins and ace Josh Johnson (13-3, 3.04).

Atlanta dropped two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, including Sunday night’s 3-2 loss. The Braves are still on runs of 6-3 on the road, 4-2 against right-handed starters and 5-3 against the N.L. East, however they have lost four straight series openers and they’re 5-12 in their last 17 Monday games.

Florida ended a three-game losing streak with a 6-4 win Sunday over the Padres. The Marlins are riding positive streaks of 7-1 on Mondays, 7-1 in series openers, and a slew of positives with Johnson on the hill, including 36-16 overall, 19-7 at home, 23-6 against the N.L. East and 12-1 at home against teams with winning records.

The Marlins hold a slim 6-5 edge in the season series between these rivals, with the visitor winning seven of the 11 contests.

Kawakami, who will lose his spot in the rotation Tuesday when Atlanta activates Tim Hudson, gave up four runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings on Wednesday, losing 12-5 at home to the Padres. Prior to that outing, the right-hander had given up just four runs in 20 1/3 innings in his previous three starts, all Atlanta wins. Kawakami is 4-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 12 road starts this year and 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in two starts against Florida, losing 6-2 at home and 6-3 in South Beach.

In Wednesday’s home outing against the Mets, Johnson allowed three runs in six innings, beating the Mets 5-3 while improving to 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA in 13 home outings, 11 of which Florida has won. In his lone start against Atlanta this season he allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings but scored a 6-3 victory at home. The Marlins are 7-3 with Johnson on the hill against the Braves, with the right-hander going 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in those 10 contests.

The under is 7-2 in Kawakami’s last nine starts (4-1 on the road), but as a team the Braves are on “over” runs of 8-4 on the road and 9-4 on the road against winning teams. Florida is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 7-1 with Johnson pitching, 13-3-2 when he pitches a series opener, 21-8-1 as a team overall and 15-3 at Land Shark Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (77-52) at Seattle (68-63)

It’s a battle of southpaws at Safeco Field, as the Angels’ send Joe Saunders (10-7, 5.27 ERA) to the mound to open a three-game set against the Mariners and Lucas French (4-3, 3.92).

The Angels had dropped seven of 10 before crushing the A’s 9-1 on Sunday behind the pitching of John Lackey, who allowed just one run on five hits over eight innings. Los Angeles has dropped four of its last five series openers, but otherwise it is on several positive runs, including 48-23 overall, 23-9 on the road, 25-9 against left-handed starters and 17-4 on the road against southpaws.

Seattle got one-hit by Royals ace Zack Greinke on Sunday, losing 3-0, falling for just the second time in its last seven games. The Mariners are riding positive runs of 6-2 at home, 4-1 against the A.L. West and 4-1 in French’s five starts since being traded to the team from Detroit. The Mariners are also 7-6 against the Angels this year, with five of the wins coming as an underdog.

Despite tailing Seattle in the season series this year, the Angels are still 41-20 in the last 61 clashes over the past three-plus years.

Saunders is 2-1 with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts, but he was solid in Wednesday’s 4-2 home win over the Tigers, giving up two runs on four hits in five innings in his first start after returning from a stint on the disabled list. Saunders has been brutal on the road recently, giving up 22 earned runs in his last 21 1/3 innings on the highway, and he’s 5-4 with a 6.12 ERA in 11 road starts.

The Halos have won seven straight games against Seattle with Saunders on the hill, with two of those wins coming this year. For his career, Saunders is 6-1 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts against the Mariners, including a 1.61 ERA in his last four games versus Seattle and 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA in five starts at Safeco.

French is making his sixth start in a Mariners’ uniform and coming off Wednesday’s 5-3 home win over the A’s when he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mariners’ lone loss with French on the mound was Aug. 15 when he allowed four runs (none earned) in six innings of a 5-2 loss to the Yankees. Tonight, he’s making his first start against Los Angeles.

With Saunders on the hill, L.A. is on several “over” runs, including 16-5 overall, 6-0 on the road, 6-0 in series openers and 9-1 when he faces a team with a winning record. Meanwhile as a team, the Angels have topped the total in 37 of 55 overall, 13 of 19 on the road, five straight on Mondays and 15 of 23 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Seattle has gone “over” the total in six of eight series openers, but it has stayed “under” the number in 17 of 22 against division rivals.

Finally, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 series clashes in Seattle, but the under is 4-1 in the last five Angels-Mariners battles overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com and the featured handicapping analyst on SportsNet New York’s Daily News Live, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com