Thursday, April 30

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

San Diego (11-10) at L.A. Dodgers (14-8)

The top two teams in the N.L. West begin a four-game weekend series at Dodger Stadium, where L.A.’s James McDonald (2-1, 7.11 ERA) is set to oppose the Padres’ Josh Geer (0-0, 4.91) in a battle of rookie right-handers.

San Diego capped a three-game series at the Rockies with Wednesday’s 7-5 defeat and it has now dropped seven of its last nine after beginning the season 9-3. During the slump, the Padres have lost five of six on the road. Additionally, the Friars are in funks of 20-48 as a road underdog, 28-58 versus winning teams, 1-4 against the N.L. West, 1-5 against right-handed starters and 1-4 in Geer’s last five starts, but they have won five consecutive games on Thursday.

The Dodgers return home after a nine-game road trip that saw them go 4-5, including last night’s 9-4 loss to the Giants. Los Angeles is unbeaten in six home games this season, outscoring its foes – the Giants and Rockies – by a combined tally of 64-17. Also, despite last night’s loss in San Francisco, Joe Torre’s club is also on positive runs of 12-5 overall, 36-16 at home, 25-10 as a favorite and 11-3 against N.L. West rivals.

These teams split a four-game series in San Diego to open the season, but Los Angeles is still 9-4 in the last 13 clashes, including taking five of the last six in 2008 at Dodger Stadium.

Geer’s only start this season came on April 19 at Philadelphia, and he allowed just two runs (one earned) on six hits and no walks in seven innings. He left with a 4-2 lead, but San Diego couldn’t hold it, losing 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth. Geer has also pitched four innings out of the bullpen, allowing five runs (six earned) on seven hits. The rookie has yet to face the Dodgers.

McDonald gave up five runs (all earned) in five innings on Saturday at Colorado, but he ended up getting the win as the Dodgers held on 6-5. The 24-year-old has pitched poorly in two road starts (10 runs allowed in 7 1/3 innings), but he’s been sharp in two home outings (one start), scattering five hits and three walks over 5 1/3 scoreless innings. McDonald’s career against San Diego includes just one scoreless inning of relief last season.

All four meetings in San Diego this month stayed under the total, but 20 of the last 28 Padres-Dodgers clashes in Los Angeles have played to the “over.” Additionally, the Dodgers are on “over” stretches of 7-1-3 overall, 4-1-1 at home this season, 8-1-1 as a home favorite, 8-0-1 against right-handed starters and 5-0-3 versus the N.L. West. Similarly, San Diego carries “over” trends of 4-1 overall, 9-3-1 on the road, 5-2 in N.L. West contests, 7-1 on the road against righty starters and 9-2 in series openers.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and OVER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com and the featured handicapping analyst on SportsNet New York’s Daily News Live, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com