Sunday, February 1

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COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Penn State (16-5, 9-4-1 ATS) at (9) Michigan State (17-3, 9-7-1 ATS)

Penn State shoots for its fourth consecutive Big Ten victory and looks to avenge its most recent defeat when it visits East Lansing, Mich., for a showdown against Michigan State.

Since losing 78-73 to the Spartans as a five-point home underdog on Jan. 14, the Nittany Lions have reeled off three straight wins (2-1 ATS). They’ve been idle since last Saturday when they rallied to defeat Iowa 63-59, coming up short as a six-point home chalk. Penn State’s defense has been stout during the three-game run, yielding 55, 58 and 59 points and 40.3 percent shooting while the offense has shot at a 49.7 percent clip.

Michigan State is coming off back-to-back double-digit road wins over Ohio State (78-67 as a three-point chalk) and Iowa (71-56 as a 6½-point favorite). However, the last time the Spartans were at home, they suffered a stunning 70-63 loss to Northwestern as a 12-point choice, a defeat that ended the team’s 11-game winning streak. Tom Izzo’s team has scored at least 70 points in 10 of its last 14 games.

The Spartans sit atop the Big Ten standings at 7-1 (4-3-1 ATS), while Penn State is 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in league play, including 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road.

Michigan State has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this rivalry, going 8-2-1 ATS in the last 10, all as a favorite. The Spartans are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they’ve hosted the Nittany Lions, with the average margin of victory being a whopping 24.8 points per game. Last year, Penn State visited East Lansing and got walloped 86-49 as a 15-point underdog.

Penn State is on ATS runs of 11-4-1 overall, 7-2-1 in Big Ten play, 4-1 on the highway, 5-0-1 after a non-cover and 6-2-1 versus teams with a winning record.

The Spartans are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, but they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five at home.

The last four meetings in this series have topped the posted total. Also, the over is on runs of 4-1 for Michigan State overall (all against Big Ten opponents), 4-0 for Penn State against winning teams and 5-1 for Penn State on Sunday. However, the under is 6-2 in Michigan State’s last eight home contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and OVER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com and the featured handicapping analyst on SportsNet New York’s Daily News Live, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations. Also check out today’s Free Video Report for his Super Bowl Over/Under winner at PickNation.com