Tuesday, September 30

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (88-74) at Chicago White Sox (88-74)

Having staved off elimination with a do-or-die victory over the Tigers on Monday, the White Sox now welcome the Twins to U.S. Cellular Field for a one-game playoff to decide the American League Central Division champion. John Danks (11-9, 3.47 ERA) is slated to take the ball for Chicago, while Minnesota will go with rookie Nick Blackburn (11-10, 4.14).

Forced to play a makeup game against Detroit on Monday, Chicago trailed 2-1 in the sixth inning when rookie Alexei Ramirez crushed a grand slam to lead the Sox to an 8-2 victory and set up this winner-take-all contest. Chicago has followed up a five-game losing skid – including a three-game sweep at Minnesota last week – with consecutive wins, but Ozzie Guillen’s club is just 5-9 in its last 14 games.

After saving their season with the three-game sweep of the White Sox last week, the Twins lost two straight home games to the Royals before closing the regular season with Sunday’s 6-0 win over Kansas City. Although Ron Gardenhire’s squad has won five of its last seven overall, it went just 4-9 on the road in September.

The home team dominated this rivalry in 2008, going 15-3 in the 18 meetings. The White Sox won seven of the nine clashes in the Windy City, including the last five in a row. The seven wins by Chicago at home came by a combined score of 60-22.

Both teams had identical records this year at home (53-28) and on the road (35-46), and Chicago has won 41 of its last 59 at the Cell.

Danks’ most recent start came on Friday at home against Cleveland, and he got crushed for seven runs (all earned) on seven hits (two home runs) in just four innings of an 11-8 loss. The southpaw, who led the White Sox in ERA this year, is just 2-5 in his last nine starts, but he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 trips to the hill since the beginning of August.

Danks is only 4-6 at home despite a 3.96 ERA. However, he’s 2-3 with a beefy 6.88 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins, including 1-1 with a 7.91 ERA in four starts this season, with Chicago splitting those four games.

Blackburn, who led the Twins in innings pitched this season, shut down the White Sox in his most recent outing six days ago, giving up two runs on eight hits and two walks in five innings of a 3-2 victory. However, Minnesota is just 2-7 in the right-hander’s last nine trips to the mound, including five straight losses on the road, with Blackburn posting 7.67 ERA in those five road defeats.

For the season, Blackburn is 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA in 18 road starts – 13 of which the Twins have lost – compared with 8-3 with a 2.95 ERA in 14 outings in Minnesota. He’s also 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against the White Sox, with all five starts coming this season. That includes three games at U.S. Cellular, with Blackburn going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and the Twins losing all three games by the combined score of 24-11.

The over is 7-2 in the nine head-to-head battles between these rivals in Chicago, and seven of those contests featured double-digit run totals. Also, for Minnesota, the over is on streaks of 17-8-1 overall, 35-17-2 on the road, 9-0-2 on Tuesdays, 4-0-1 following an off day, 6-2 against a lefty starter and 3-0 when Blackburn pitches in Chicago. Finally, the White Sox are on over streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-2 at home and 4-1 when Danks faces the Twins.

The winner of this game heads to Tampa Bay for a first-round, best-of-5 playoff series against the Rays, which begins Thursday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports, MSNBC and The Sporting News. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com