Sunday, August 31

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Kentucky at Louisville

Louisville opens the season against archrival Kentucky in the annual battle for the Governor’s Cup in Papa John’s Cardinals Stadium in Louisville.

Kentucky (8-5, 6-5-1 ATS) started off last season with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), including a last-minute 40-34 upset victory over the Cardinals as a 4½-point home ‘dog in Week 3. However, after the hot start, the Wildcats dropped five of their next seven games both SU and ATS before beating Florida State 35-28 in the Music City Bowl, pushing as a seven-point chalk.

Louisville (6-6, 4-7 ATS) saw its season spiral downward after the loss to Kentucky, and the Cardinals missed out on a bowl game for the first time this decade.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four series clashes, and despite last year’s loss, Louisville is 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the last nine. Finally, the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Kentucky lost a slew of offensive weapons from last year’s explosive team that averaged 35 points and nearly 450 yards per game, including QB Andre Woodson, leading rusher Rafael Little and top wideouts Keenan Burton and Steve Johnson. Sophomore Mike Hartline was handed the starting QB job when senior Curtis Pulley was removed from the team at the start of preseason practice.

Defense will be essential for Kentucky, as the Wildcats have five all-SEC candidates among seven returning starters, including DE Jeremy Jarmon, who was fourth in the SEC in sacks a season ago.

Louisville lost QB Brian Brohm, who led an offense that averaged 32 points and almost 500 yards per game in 2007, but the Cardinals have experience under center in Hunter Cantwell who has thrown for 1,419 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs as a three-year backup. He has started four games in his career, going 3-1. Also, RB Brock Bolen is back after running for 456 yards and seven TDs last year.

Like Kentucky, Louisville had a shaky defense last season, allowing more than 31 points a game, but there are eight starters returning to that unit.

The under is 5-2 in the last seven Governor’s Cups.

ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE

Colorado vs. Colorado State, at Denver

The Buffaloes and Rams converge on Invesco Field in Denver in this annual in-state rivalry, which has been decided by seven points or less each of the last six years.

Colorado got a 31-28 overtime victory in this showdown last season, covering as a 2½-point favorite, but otherwise the underdog has dominated this rivalry, cashing in five straight meetings and eight of the last 10 before last year’s contest. Finally, Colorado State is 6-3 ATS in the last nine clashes.

The Buffs (6-7 SU and ATS) were inconsistent last season under then second-year coach Dan Hawkins, struggling down the stretch in going 2-5 SU and ATS in the final seven, including a 30-24 loss to Alabama in the Independence Bowl. On the bright side last year, Colorado went 4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk.

Hawkins’ son Cody started last season as a redshirt freshman and threw for 2,693 yards with 22 total TDs (19 passing). On the defensive side, Colorado has the Big 12’s leading tackler back in LB Jeff Smart, who made 162 stops a season ago.

For the Rams, first-year coach Steve Fairchild has some big shoes to fill, replacing legend Sonny Lubick, who was on the Colorado State sidelines for 15 years. However, Colorado State (3-9, 5-6 ATS in 2007) struggled in Lubick’s last four seasons, going just 17-30 after winning six conference crowns in a nine-year span that ended in 2002.

The Rams lost their first six games (1-5 ATS) of 2007, running their losing streak to 13 before getting a 48-23 win at UNLV in Week 7. They finished the year 4-1 ATS, including back-to-back outright wins over Georgia Southern (42-34 in a non-lined game) and Wyoming (36-28 as 3½-point favorites) to close out the Lubick era.

Colorado State has experience at RB in Kyle Bell, who led the Mountain West Conference in rushing in 2005 with 1,288 yards before missing a season with a knee injury. However, the Rams struggled on defense a season ago, allowing 30.8 points and 415.2 yards per game.

The over is 10-4 in the Rams’ last 14 against Big 12 opposition and 7-2-1 in their last 10 against non-conference foes. The over is also 9-3 in Colorado’s last 12 against Mountain West competition. Finally, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 clashes in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports, MSNBC and The Sporting News. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com