Tuesday, July 29

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (62-44) at Milwaukee (60-46)

A pair of aces square off tonight at Miller Park, where the Brewers’ Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.87 ERA) is scheduled to oppose the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano (11-4, 2.96) as the top two teams in the N.L. Central continue a key four-game series.

Chicago gutted out a 6-4 victory on Monday, moving to 4-2 in its last six games and boosting its divisional lead to two games over the Brewers. Still, Lou Piniella’s club is just 7-13 in its last 20 on the highway and 2-9 in its last 11 as an underdog.

The Brewers have come back to earth after a seven-game winning streak, losing three of their last four, all at home. On the bright side, Milwaukee is still on runs of 12-6 as a home favorite and 19-9 against the N.L. Central.

These teams have alternated wins and losses against one another over the last six meetings.

Zambrano is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts since returning from a stint on the disabled list. Also, he’s dominated the Brewers twice this year, giving up just one run on 10 hits in 13 innings (0.69 ERA), but the Cubs lost both games at home by identical 4-3 scores. In fact, Chicago is just 3-7 in Zambrano’s last 10 starts against Milwaukee, but 3-1 during this stretch at Miller Park.

The Brewers are 14-6 with Sheets toeing the rubber this year, including 6-2 in his last eight. However, they’re only 4-3 when the right-hander pitches at home, where Sheets sports a solid 2.96 ERA. Finally, going back to last season, the Brewers have won four straight games against the Cubs with Sheets on the bump, though all four wins came at Wrigley Field, including two this year by scores of 4-3 and 10-7.

The over is on runs of 8-2 for Milwaukee at home, 8-1-2 in this rivalry at Miller Park, 4-1 when Sheets pitches at home, 16-7-1 when Sheets battles a divisional foe, 4-0 for Sheets at home against Chicago, 4-1 when Zambrano pitches in Milwaukee and 8-3 when Zambrano goes off as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and OVER

AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (65-40) at Boston (61-46)

John Lackey (8-2, 3.02) looks to defeat Clay Buchholz (2-5, 5.81) and the Red Sox for the second time this month when he takes the mound for the Angels in the middle game of this three-game series at Fenway Park.

Los Angeles, which owns baseball’s best record, improved to 10-2 in its last 12 games with Monday’s 7-5 win in Boston. The Halos are also on streaks of 5-1 on the road, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 6-0 against the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Boston has dropped six of 10 games since the All-Star break, but Terry Francona’s squad is still riding streaks of 41-14 at home and 21-9 against the Angels at Fenway Park.

Lackey held the Red Sox to three runs on five hits in seven innings on July 18 in Los Angeles en route to an 11-3 victory. Despite that result, Lackey is just 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA in 12 career regular-season starts versus Boston, and including the playoffs, the Angels are 2-11 all-time with Lackey facing the Sox, including 1-7 at Fenway Park.

Lackey has a 7.64 ERA in his last three outings, but L.A. won all three and is 10-3 in the right-hander’s 13 starts this year, including 5-1 on the road.

Buchholz is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three starts since being recalled from Triple-A, though Boston did earn a 6-3, 12-inning victory in Seattle in the right-hander’s most recent start on Wednesday. Still, the Red Sox are just 3-8 with Buchholz on the hill this season, including the 11-3 loss to Lackey and the Angels in Anaheim on July 18. Also, Buchholz has pitched through the sixth inning just three times in 11 starts.

The over is 4-0 in Lackey’s last four starts overall, 4-1 in his last five against the Red Sox, 5-0-1 in Buchholz’s last six outings and 2-0 in Buchholz’s two career starts against the Angels. Also, the over is 10-4-2 in the last 16 series meetings in Boston and 6-2-1 in Boston’s last nine at Fenway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER

Chicago White Sox (59-45) at Minnesota (58-47)

Glen Perkins (7-3, 4.08) gets the nod for the Twins, who look to inch closer to the White Sox in the A.L. Central race as this four-game series continues at the Metrodome. Chicago is scheduled to hand the ball to Clayton Richard (0-0, 9.00 ERA) for his second career big-league start.

Minnesota rolled to a 7-0 victory Monday night for its third straight win. The Twins, who had lost five in a row to Chicago prior to Monday, are now on a 19-5 run at home. Meanwhile, the White Sox have followed a four-game winning streak with consecutive losses. They’re also 7-15 in their last 22 on the road and 1-10 in their last 11 on artificial turf.

The host is 10-2 in this rivalry in 2008.

Perkins saw a string of four straight quality starts end his last time out at Yankee Stadium, where he gave up five runs in six innings of a 5-1 loss. Still, the Twins are 9-4 in the lefty’s last 13 starts, including 5-2 at home. However, in his lone career start against the White Sox in Chicago on June 9, Perkins allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings, getting a no-decision in Minnesota’s 7-5 loss.

Richard lasted just four innings in his major-league debut on Wednesday against the Rangers, giving up five runs (four earned) on seven hits. However, Chicago’s offense bailed out the southpaw in a 10-8 victory.

The under is 5-0 in Perkins’ last five starts and 16-5 in Chicago’s last 21 games on artificial turf.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports, MSNBC and The Sporting News. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com