Sunday, September 30

9 Free Picks, all backed by In-Depth Analysis, plus more Rated Selections from the nation’s premier sports analysts, are available daily at PickNation.com

Oakland (1-2, 1-2 ATS) at Miami (0-3, 0-1-2 ATS)

The Raiders, with fast-learning rookie coach Lane Kiffin, look to make it two wins in a row when they travel cross-country to meet the winless Dolphins.

Oakland, beaten in overtime two weeks ago at Denver after an apparent game-winning field goal was nullified by a timeout, turned the same trick against Cleveland last week. Kiffin called timeout just before the snap of a kick that was perfect, the Browns lined up again, and Phil Dawson’s 40-yarder was blocked. That gave the Raiders a 26-24 win, but they failed to cover as three-point home favorites.

Oakland starting QB Josh McCown (6-for-12, 108 yards, one TD) left last week’s game after the first half with a broken toe, and Daunte Culpepper (8-for-14, 114 yards) finished up and will start this game.

Miami’s offense finally got going against the Jets, but not enough to dodge a 31-28 road loss as three-point underdogs. Trent Green went 23-for-36 for 318 yards with one TD and one INT, and RB Ronny Brown had 23 carries for 112 yards and two TDs. Brown added six catches for another 99 yards and a score, and Chris Chambers had six grabs for 101 yards.

The Raiders have lost 15 of their last 17 road games (7-10 ATS), and they’re 4-12 ATS in their last 16 as a road ‘dog. On the bright side, Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points.

The Dolphins are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 home games, and they are 6-11-2 ATS in their 19 overall.

The Raiders have topped the total in all three of their games this season, while the Dolphins have hurdled the number in each of their last two contests. However, the under is 12-4-2 in the Raiders’ last 18 games against AFC opponents, 7-2 in Miami’s last nine as a favorite, and 9-3 in Miami’s last 12 against the AFC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND and UNDER

Houston (2-1, 3-0 ATS) at Atlanta (1-2 SU and ATS)

The Texans look to bounce back from their first loss of the season, while the Falcons just want a win when these two meet at the Georgia Dome.

Houston is coming off a respectable showing against defending Super Bowl champion Indianapolis, losing 30-24 as a 6½-point home pup despite not having star wideout Andre Johnson (knee), who will again be out this week. QB Matt Schaub completed 27 of 33 passes for 236 yards and a TD, but he was picked off twice and sacked three times. He found ten receivers, but got no help from his running game, which generated just 40 net rushing yards.

Schaub returns to Atlanta, where he served as Michael Vick’s understudy for several years before being traded to Houston in the offseason.

Atlanta got its best effort yet from Joey Harrington, but still lost 27-20 to Carolina as a four-point home pup. Harrington completed 31 of 44 for 361 yards with two TDS nd no INTs. But the Falcons had just 91 yards rushing and lost two fumbles.

Houston is on a 5-0 ATS run dating to last season. However, the Texans, who are a road favorite for the first time in team history, are on a 4-9-1 ATS stretch against the NFC – though one of those four covers came in a stunning 34-21 win at Carolina two weeks ago.

The Falcons are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, and 3-9 ATS against teams with a winning record.

The Texans have gone over the total in their last two games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON

Baltimore (2-1, 0-3 ATS) at Cleveland (1-2, 2-1 ATS)

The Ravens look to make it three straight wins when they travel to Cleveland Browns Stadium for a matchup of division rivals.

Baltimore held off Arizona last week for a 26-23 win on a last-second Matt Stover field goal, but failed to cover as a seven-point home chalk, dropping to 0-3 ATS on the season. QB Steve McNair returned from a groin injury, completing 20 of 27 passes for 198 yards and a TD, with no INTs but one lost fumble. RB Willis McGahee had 21 carries for 98 yards (4.7 per carry).

Cleveland nearly notched its second straight win, but a last-second 40-yard field-goal attempt was blocked, leaving the Browns on the short end of a 26-24 final as a three-point road underdog. A week after lighting up Cincinnati’s defense, QB Derek Anderson had a mediocre effort, completing 18 of 37 for 248 yards with one TD and two INTs. Also, RB Jamal Lewis came back down to earth after a monster day against the Bengals, finishing with just 56 yards and no TDs on 15 carries.

The Ravens are 0-4 ATS as road favorites since 2005, and 6-14 SU and ATS in their last 20 road games under coach Brian Billick.

The Browns are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against AFC North opponents, but they’re on a 6-0 ATS run versus teams with a winning record, including a 51-45 home win over Cincinnati two weeks ago.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings of this series.

The over is 3-0 for the Browns this year and 2-0-1 for Baltimore.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER

Chicago (1-2, 0-3 ATS) at Detroit (2-1, 2-1 ATS)

The Bears will try to revive their offense with a new starting quarterback when they travel to Ford Field to meet the Lions in an NFC North matchup.

Chicago is coming off a blowout loss to Dallas, falling 34-10 as four-point home favorites in a nationally televised Sunday night affair.. QB Rex Grossman was sub-par again, completing 15 of 32 passes for 195 yards with no TDs and three INTs, including one returned for a touchdown. That performance got him benched, as the defending NFC champs will hand the reins to veteran Brian Griese this week.

Detroit was dealt its first setback of 2007 in a big way, getting hammered at Philadelphia 56-21 as five-point ‘dogs. QB Jon Kitna put up monster numbers, completing 29 of 46 passes for 446 yards and two TDS, but he was sacked nine times, threw one INT and lost two of his three fumbles. The Lions couldn’t run the ball at all, and the defense gave up 536 total yards.

The Lions are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC opponents, but they were 4-1 ATS as a home pup last season.

The Bears, who have failed to cover the number in four straight regular-season games, are 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a favorite and 1-6 ATS following an ATS loss.

Chicago is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Detroit; however, the underdog in this series has cashed in five of the last six clashes.

Since 1998, the defending Super Bowl loser has gone 2-13 ATS on the road in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT

Green Bay (3-0 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (1-2, 1-0-2 ATS)

Brett Favre and the Packers look to continue their hot start against the NFC North rival Vikings at the Metrodome.

Green Bay comes in off a 31-24 victory over San Diego as a six-point home underdog, the team’s seventh win in a row dating to last season. Favre heaved 45 passes, completing 28 for 369 yards with three TDs, no INTs and no fumbles. He hit Greg Jennings on a short pass that Jennings turned into a 57-yard score to put the Packers ahead, giving Favre 420 career TD passes to tie Dan Marino’s NFL record. Green Bay ran just 13 times for 42 yards.

Minnesota, with Kelly Holcomb starting at QB for the injured (and ineffective) Tarvaris Jackson, got bogged down in a 13-10 loss to Kansas City, getting a push as a three-point road pup. Holcomb, who will start again today, was 14 of 28 for 165 yards, with no TDs and no INTs, but he was sacked five times. Rookie RB Adrian Peterson was the lone bright spot offensively with, 25 carries for 102 yards and a TD, and another 48 yards receiving on three catches.

The Packers are 6-1 ATS during their winning streak. They’re also on an 18-11-1 ATS roll on the highway, including 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine as a visitor.

The Vikings are 9-2-1 in their last 12 division games, but they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 overall and 4-5 SU and ATS in their last nine at home.

The Packers beat the Vikings 23-17 last year in Minnesota as a five-point pup. The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.

The Vikings have stayed under the total in all three of their games this season, but the Packers have hurdled the number in each of their last two contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY

St. Louis (0-3 SU and ATS) at Dallas (3-0 SU and ATS)

The Rams look to get in the win column for the first time this season, but it doesn’t figure to be easy when they travel to face red-hot Dallas at Texas Stadium.

St. Louis got drilled 24-3 at Tampa Bay a week ago, never threatening to cover as 3½-point underdogs. QB Marc Bulger, nursing two broken ribs, was relatively ineffective in completing 17 of 26 passes for just 116 yards with no TDs and three INTs. RB Steven Jackson rushed for 115 yards, but needed 30 carries to get there, and he won’t be available this week due to partial tear of his left groin.

Dallas looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders by destroying Chicago 34-10 on Sunday night as a four-point road pup. QB Tony Romo torched the highly touted Bears defense, hitting 22 of 35 for 329 yards with two TDs and one INT. RB Marion Barber racked up 102 yards and a TD on just 15 carries (6.8 per carry), and the Cowboys limited the Bears to just 239 total yards, forcing four turnovers.

The Rams are mired in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall, 2-7 against the NFC and 9-19 as a road underdog.

The Cowboys are just 5-5 SU and ATS in their last 10 home games, though they did throttle the Giants in their home opener in Week 1, winning 38-28 as a six-point home chalk.

For Dallas, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall (3-0 this year), 9-3-2 against the NFC and 6-1-1 as a favorite. On the flip side, the Rams have stayed under the total in all three of their games in 2007.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER

N.Y. Jets (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) at Buffalo (0-3, 1-2 ATS)

The Jets head to Ralph Wilson Stadium to meet the winless Bills in a game both teams need, with New England already off to a torrid start in the AFC East.

QB Chad Pennington (ankle) returned to action last week and helped the Jets crack the win column with a 31-28 victory over Miami as a three-point home chalk. Pennington hardly lit it up, but neither did he throw it away, completing 15 of 22 passes for 124 yards and two TDs. RB Thomas Jones had 25 carries for 110 yards.

Injury-riddled Buffalo continued its struggles at New England last week, getting hammered 38-7 as a 16½-point road ‘dog. QB J.P. Losman – still without a TD pass this season – suffered a left knee injury on the first play of the game, but he stayed in and fumbled it away two plays later. Rookie Trent Edwards finished the game, going 10 of 20 for just 97 yards with one INT. With Losman unable to play, Edwards will get the nod in this one.

The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road, but the Bills counter with a 5-1 ATS mark in their last six home games and 8-5 ATS in their last 13 as an underdog.

The over is 10-2 in the Jets’ last 12 games against AFC East opponents. The over is also 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series and 6-1 in the last seven battles in Buffalo.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Tampa Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) at Carolina (2-1 SU and ATS)

The Buccaneers suddenly seem to have life again in the NFC South and could improve their status with a win at Bank of America Stadium against the rival Panthers in a battle of first-place clubs.

Tampa Bay battered St. Louis 24-3 as a 3½-point home chalk last week. QB Jeff Garcia’s numbers were nothing special (14-for-22 for 151 yards, no TDs), but he had no INTs and no fumbles, and he got plenty of support from his running game, as the three-headed attack of Earnest Graham, Michael Pittman and Cadillac Williams helped rack up 182 rushing yards. The Bucs also forced three turnovers, while committing just one.

Carolina rebounded from a Week 2 home loss to Houston by beating Atlanta 27-20 as a four-point road favorite. QB Jake Delhomme was limited due to an elbow injury suffered during the game, but he still got two TDs passes in his 10-for-18 effort for 109 yards. The rushing game proved key, with DeShaun Foster gaining 122 yards on 20 carries with one TD, and DeAngelo Williams running 11 times for 47 yards. David Carr, who relieved Delhomme last week, will start today.

The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. However, they are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games in this series. In fact, Tampa is just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 series battles, including 1-5 ATS in Carolina.

The Buccaneers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 against NFC opponents.

Carolina has gone over the total in its last two games and has hit at least 40 combined points in all three contests this year.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA

Seattle (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at San Francisco (2-1, 1-2 ATS)

Two teams hoping to gain an early edge in the NFC West square off when the defending division champion Seahawks travel to Monster Park to meet the 49ers.

Seattle comes in off a 24-21 victory over Cincinnati as a 3½-point home chalk. Matt Hasselbeck completed 24 of 37 passes for 248 yards and three TDs, including the game-winning 22-yard strike to Nate Burleson late in the fourth quarter. On the down side, Hasselebck threw his first two INTs of the season. RB Shaun Alexander had 21 carries for 100 yards, and the Seahawks won the turnover battle, 4-2.

San Francisco was dealt its first loss of the year at Pittsburgh last week, falling 37-16 as a 9½-point road ‘dog. Statistically, QB Alex Smith had his best game of the season, but that’s not saying much after two 126-yard passing efforts in the first two Weeks. Smith finished 17-for-35 for 209 yards and one TD, with one INT (returned for a touchdown) and two sacks. Also, RB Frank Gore mustered just 39 yards on 14 carries.

The Seahawks have lost four straight divisional games and they’re 0-6 ATS in the last six. Also, they’re 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games.

San Francisco is on positive ATS runs of 11-6 as an underdog and 7-1-1 against NFC West foes.

The 49ers swept the season series from Seattle last year, including a 24-14 win as a 9½-point road pup.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO

Pittsburgh (3-0 SU and ATS) at Arizona (1-2, 2-0-1 ATS)

The Steelers will get to see how former offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt is doing in his new role as Cardinals head coach when these two teams meet at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Pittsburgh stayed perfect with last week’s 37-16 rout of San Francisco as a 9½-point home favorite. QB Ben Roethlisberger was an efficient 13-for-20 for 160 yards and one TD, and RB Willie Parker had 24 carries for 133 yards (5.5 per carry). The Steelers also got a 98-yard kickoff return from Allen Rossum after falling behind 3-0, and Bryant McFadden had a 50-yard INT return for a TD to pad the final score.

Arizona might have created a little quarterback controversy in last week’s 26-23 loss to Baltimore as a seven-point road ‘dog. Starter Matt Leinart rotated series with Kurt Warner, and Leinart completed just 9 of 20 for 53 yards. Warner, meanwhile, led the Cardinals back from a 23-6 deficit with two TD passes, and he finished 15 of 20 for 258 yards.

The Steelers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 regular-season games (8-2-1 ATS) and 20-8 in their last 28 road games (17-10-1 ATS). Finally, Pittsburgh is on ATS runs of 7-2 against the NFC and 9-2 when laying points in non-divisional games.

The Cardinals have covered eight of their last nine as an underdog, including five in a row. However, they’re 4-10-1 ATS in their last 14 as a non-conference home pup.

Both teams have injury issues at wide receiver. Pittsburgh’s Hines Ward has been ruled out, while Arizona’s Anquan Boldin is doubtful.

The over is 8-1 in Arizona’s last nine games, and 20-6 in Arizona’s last 26 as an underdog. Also, the over is 4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last five following a SU win, and 6-1-1 following an ATS win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER

Kansas City (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) at San Diego (1-2 SU and ATS)

Having posted their first victory of the season, the Chiefs and their extraordinarily low-scoring offense hit the road to take on the suddenly struggling Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium.

Kansas City somehow managed to notch its first win despite another paltry offensive display, rallying to beat Minnesota 13-10 as three-point home favorites. QB Damon Huard had his best game of the season, but it was hardly eye-popping, as he went 20 of 29 for 206 yards and one TD, somehow leading the offense on an 84-yard fourth-quarter TD drive to win the game. RB Larry Johnson needed 24 carries to get 42 yards – an anemic 1.75 yards per carry.

Kansas City has scored just 26 points in its three games (8.7 average).

San Diego put up nearly that many points just last week, albeit in a losing effort. The Chargers fell to Green Bay 31-24 as six-point road chalk, matching their total number of losses that they had all of last season. Philip Rivers had his best effort this season, going a solid 27-for-36 for 306 yards and three TDs, but the threw a crucial INT that clinched the game for Green Bay. TE Antonio Gates had 11 catches for 113 yards, but RB LaDainian Tomlinson continued to struggle, netting just 62 yards on 22 carries.

The Chiefs are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 road trips, and they are mired in a 2-7 ATS drought as a road ‘dog (1-1 ATS in that role this season).

The Chargers are 9-3-1 ATS as a division favorite, 13-4-3 ATS in their last 20 against AFC West opponents and 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU loss.

San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Kansas City, with the home team covering the number in each of the last five series clashes.

The Chiefs have stayed well under the total in all three of their games this year, but the Chargers have gone over in their last two.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO

Denver (2-1, 0-3 ATS) at Indianapolis (3-0, 1-2 ATS)

The Broncos will likely find it difficult to bounce back from a home loss when they travel to the RCA Dome to meet the defending Super Bowl champion Colts.

Denver stubbed its toe last Sunday, losing to Jacksonville 23-14 as a 3½-point chalk. The Broncos’ running game hit the skids, and they were subsequently dominated in time of possession, as the Jaguars kept the ball for nearly 39 minutes. QB Jay Cutler was 16 of 23 for 222 yards with one TD and one INT. Jacksonville held Denver RB Travis Henry to 35 yards on 11 carries, and the Broncos finished with just 265 total yards.

Indianapolis dealt Houston its first loss of the season, winning 30-24 but failing to cover as a 6½-point road favorite. QB Peyton Manning had a relatively average game, going 20-for-29 for 273 yards and one TD, and RB Joseph Addai had 72 rushing yards, but scored twice. The Colts’ defense held the Texans to just 254 total yards, including 40 yards on the ground, and picked off two Matt Schaub passes.

The Broncos have now failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games. Moreover, they’re 5-11 ATS dating to the 2006 season opener, including 0-8 ATS in their last eight against AFC opponents.

The Colts have won 11 consecutive home games, going 8-3 ATS.

Counting the playoffs, this will be the eighth meeting between these two teams in the past seven years, with Indy going 5-2 SU and ATS in the previous seven, including a 34-31 win as a three-point road underdog last year.

The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings, and 7-1 in the Broncos’ last eight games overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER

Philadelphia (1-2 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (1-2 SU and ATS)

The Eagles look to build on last week’s offensive outburst when they travel to East Rutherford, N.J., to face the Giants in a key NFC East showdown.

Behind a stellar effort from Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia put up 42 first-half points en route to a 56-21 bashing of Detroit as a five-point home chalk. McNabb completed 21 of 26 passes for 381 yards and four TDS, with no INTs and one lost fumble. RB Brian Westbrook found plenty of room to roam, with 14 carries for 110 yards (7.9 per carry) and two TDs. Philly’s defense added nine sacks and forced three turnovers.

Facing a must-win situation after an 0-2 start, New York came through, rallying with two fourth-quarter TDs to beat Washington 24-17 as a 3½-point road pup. QB Eli Manning was 21 of 36 for 232 yards with one TD, two INTs and a lost fumble. But his one TD pass was timely, as he connected with Plaxico Burress for the go-ahead score. The Giants’ defense – which allowed just 260 total yards — made a goal-line stand to seal the win.

The Eagles are 37-22-1 ATS in their last 60 road games, including a 36-22 win at Giants Stadium last December. But they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine as a road favorite, and 7-14-1 as a road chalk since 2005.

The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, but they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine against division opponents.

The underdog has cashed in each of the last four meetings in this rivalry, including all three battles last year (two regular season, one postseason).

The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series and 6-2-1 in the Eagles’ last nine road games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GIANTS and OVER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports, MSNBC and The Sporting News. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com