Tuesday, July 31

8 Free Picks, all backed by In-Depth Analysis, plus more Rated Selections from the nation’s premier sports analysts, are available daily at PickNation.com

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Arizona (58-49) at San Diego (56-48)

Two of the three teams in a dogfight in the competitive N.L. West begin a three-game series at Petco Park, with DBacks ace Brandon Webb (9-8, 3.23 ERA) set to battle Justin Germano (6-5, 4.20) in tonight’s opener.

The DBacks, who had an eight-game winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 14-0 home loss to the Braves, are tied with the Dodgers atop the N.L. West standings. Meanwhile, San Diego is just a half-game back and comes into this game having lost seven of its last 10, including three in a row at home.

Arizona has lost 12 of its last 16 road games. On the bright side, the DBacks are 5-3 against San Diego this season, including 2-1 when Webb pitches.

Webb is coming off Wednesday’s dominating 7-0 home win over the Marlins, as he allowed just six hits and three walks over seven scoreless innings. The righthander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts.

On the road, Webb is 5-4 with a 3.11 ERA. However, he’s just 3-6 in 17 career starts against San Diego despite a 3.72 ERA. In three starts versus the Padres this year, he’s allowed just six earned runs in 21 2/3 innings (2.49 ERA), getting two no-decisions in two Arizona wins, while suffering a 4-0 home loss to Germano and the Padres back on July 15.

Germano was outstanding in that July 15 contest in Arizona, allowing just four hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Since then, however, the rookie righthander has surrendered a combined 10 runs on 13 hits in 10 1/3 innings in a pair of losses to the Phillies (7-3) and Rockies (10-2). San Diego is just 1-6 in Germano’s last seven starts.

Germano is just 2-3 with a 5.67 ERA in six home starts. In his last four at Petco, he’s given up 19 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings (8.41 ERA), and the Padres lost all four.

The over is 5-1 when Germano pitches at home, including 4-0 in the last four.

The over is 7-3 in San Diego’s last 10 games (3-0 at home) and 4-2 in Arizona’s last six. However, the under is 9-1-3 in the DBacks’ last 13 road contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Baltimore (49-55) at Boston (64-41)

A tremendous pitching matchup is on tap at Fenway Park tonight, as the Orioles’ Erik Bedard (10-4, 3.05) is set to square off against Josh Beckett (13-4, 3.27) in the opener of a three-game series in Beantown.

The Red Sox return home from a 5-2 road trip, and they’ve won eight of their last 10 overall. They continue to sport one of baseball’s best home records at 34-19.

Baltimore, which like Boston was idle on Monday, had a six-game winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 10-6 loss to the Yankees. The O’s are 11-4 in their last 15 games, but they’ve alternated wins and losses in their last six on the road.

Boston has won four of the first five meetings against Baltimore this season, going 2-1 at home. Going back to last season, the Orioles are mired in a 3-13 slump at Fenway Park.

Bedard has won six consecutive decisions, going 4-0 with a ridiculous 0.62 ERA in his last four, giving up just two runs and 12 hits in 29 innings of work. The hard-throwing southpaw has yielded two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine outings, and Baltimore is 7-0 in his last seven trips to the mound.

Bedard is 6-1 with a 3.76 ERA in 12 road starts, with Baltimore going 8-4. However, he’s struggled against the Red Sox in his career, going 3-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine games (eight starts), including 1-3 with a 9.87 ERA in four lifetime starts at Fenway Park. This is Bedard’s first start against Boston in 2007.

Beckett came out on the short end of a 1-0 decision at Cleveland on Wednesday despite giving up just the single run (a solo homer) on four hits in eight innings. Beckett is just 2-2 despite a 2.89 ERA in his last four starts.

Beckett is 7-3 with a 4.38 ERA in 12 home starts and 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts against Baltimore. Two of those came this year, and the righthander yielded a combined four runs on 10 hits in 12 innings, with the Red Sox winning 5-2 on the road and 6-5 at home.

The O’s have stayed under the total in each of Bedard’s last four starts overall and each of his last three against Boston. Also, the under is 6-2 in Beckett’s last eight trips to the mound (3-2 at home).

The under is 6-2 in the last eight series meetings (3-2 this year) and 7-2 in the Orioles’ last nine road games. However, the over is 10-3 in Boston’s last 13 home contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

8 Free Picks, all backed by In-Depth Analysis, plus more Rated Selections from the nation’s premier sports analysts, are available daily at PickNation.com