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Thursday, May 31 7 Free Picks, all backed by In-Depth Analysis, plus more Rated Selections from the nation’s premier sports analysts, are available daily at PickNation.com EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS Cleveland (10-4 SU and ATS) at Detroit (10-4, 5-8-1 ATS) After barely pulling out a couple of wins at home, the Cavaliers head back to Detroit with new life as this competitive best-of-seven series resumes with the pivotal Game 5 at the Palace of Auburn Hills. LeBron James poured in 25 points, including 13 in the decisive fourth quarter, while little-known Daniel Gibson contributed 21 to lead Cleveland to Tuesday’s 91-87 victory in Game 4, knotting this series at 2-2, with all four games being decided by six points or less. The Cavs, who cashed as a 1½-point home underdog on Tuesday, topped 90 points for the first time in eight games. Detroit still holds a 5-3 edge in the season-long series against Cleveland, going 3-1 in Motown. However, the last six games have been decided by a total of 25 points, with the Cavaliers getting the cash in all six. In fact, going back to last year’s seven-game playoff series between these squads, when the Cavaliers went 7-1 ATS, Cleveland is on a 12-3 ATS roll against the Pistons. In last year’s conference semifinal series, the Pistons won the first two at home, but Cleveland rallied to win the next three before losing Game 6 at home and Game 7 back in Motown. The Pistons are still on a 12-4 roll dating to the regular season, and they’re 18-7 SU in their last 23 overall, but just 11-11-3 ATS. Detroit is looking to avoid its first three-game losing skid since Dec. 27-31, when it dropped three straight to the Knicks, Pacers and Suns. Including the playoffs, Detroit is 32-16 at home, but just 17-28-3 ATS, including 0-3 ATS against the Cavs and 2-4-1 ATS in this postseason. Despite the consecutive wins in Games 3 and 4, the Cavaliers are still just 4-4 SU in their last seven. On the positive side, they’re 13-6 ATS in their last 19 contests, including five consecutive spread covers going back to their series-clinching Game 6 victory over the Nets in the conference semifinals. The Cavs are also on ATS runs of 20-5 as an underdog, 18-3 as a road pup and 20-6-1 on the road overall (6-1 ATS in the playoffs). James, who was limited to a combined 29 points in the first two games in Detroit, tallied 57 points in the two home victories. The Cavs also shot 49 percent in Game 3 and 44 percent in Game 4 after combining to make just 38.5 percent of their field-goal attempts in Games 1 and 2. Chauncey Billups led the Pistons with 23 points in Game 4, while backcourt mate Richard Hamilton had 19. However, Detroit made just 41.3 percent of their field goals, going 3-for-17 from three-point land. For the series, the Pistons are shooting 29.2 percent from downtown (19-for-65) Cleveland has held the rebounding advantage in three of the four games in this series and has committed fewer turnovers (45) than Detroit (61). The Cavs have not scored more than 82 points in any of their five losses to Detroit this season. Moreover, they have scored 85, 72, 76 and 76 points in their four playoff defeats this spring, while averaging 93.8 ppg in their 10 wins. The Pistons haven’t reached 90 points in any game in this series, and have been limited to 87 points or fewer in six of their last eight contests, going 4-4 during that stretch (2-6 ATS). Tuesday’s game barely crept over the posted total, ending a 3-0 “under” streak in this series. Still, the under is 24-6 in the last 30 meetings between these two, including 13-4 in the last 17 and 9-2 in playoff clashes the past two springs. Also, the Cavs have stayed under the total in nine of their last 11 overall. ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER 7 Free Picks, all backed by In-Depth Analysis, plus more Rated Selections from the nation’s premier sports analysts, are available daily at PickNation.com |
Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports, MSNBC and The Sporting News. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com