Saturday, April 3

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FINAL FOUR
(at Indianapolis)

(5) Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) vs. (5) Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS)

Butler, which has rolled off 24 consecutive SU victories, will play what amounts to a home game at Lucas Oil Stadium when it makes its first Final Four appearance against the Spartans, who are in the Final Four for the second straight year and sixth time in the last 12 years.

Butler bagged a pair of upsets last week, taking down top-seeded Syracuse 63-59 as a six-point underdog in the Sweet 16, then bouncing No. 2 seed Kansas State 63-56 as a 3½-point pup to win the West Regional in Salt Lake City. Over the past five games, the Bulldogs have averaged a modest 65.4 ppg, but they’ve given up just 54.2 ppg. In fact, Butler has held 11 of its last 12 opponents to 59 points or less, including the last six in a row. For the season, the Bulldogs rank 10th nationally in scoring defense (59.6 ppg).

Michigan State also made a bit of an unexpected run to the national semifinals, with its four wins in the Big Dance coming by a total of 13 points. That includes a three-point win over New Mexico State in the first round, a two-point win on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer against Maryland in the second round, and Sunday’s 70-69 Elite Eight squeaker over sixth-seeded Tennessee as a two-point pup in the Midwest Regional final in St. Louis.

Butler, in its fourth straight Tournament and 10th overall, will be playing in its first Final Four just a scant seven miles from its Indianapolis campus. Meanwhile, this is familiar territory for Michigan State, which reached this stage just last year, beating UConn 82-73 as a 4½-point pup before losing the title game 89-72 to North Carolina as a 7½-point ‘dog. The Spartans are in their 24th Big Dance and eighth Final Four, reaching the national semis for the third time since 2005.

Butler is 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) at neutral venues this year, outscoring teams by a bucket per game on average (66.6-64.6) while getting outshot 44.4 percent to 40.5 percent. Michigan State has played seven neutral-site contests, going 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) while pouring in 75.9 ppg and surrendering 69.7 ppg.

The Bulldogs struggled against the number throughout the regular season, but they’ve now cashed in four of their last five overall and are on further ATS rolls of 5-1-1 against the Big Ten, 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 7-3 in the Tourney, 43-21-1 outside the Horizon League and 6-2 on Saturday. The only knocks: a 3-10 ATS mark in their last 13 following a spread-cover, and a 1-4 ATS record in their last five as a neutral-floor favorite.

The Spartans own a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 25-10-1 in the Tournament (8-2 last 10 and 3-0 in the last three), 4-1 as an underdog, 9-4 on neutral courts, 7-2-1 as a neutral-site pup, 4-1 as a Tourney ‘dog and 9-4 against the Horizon League. Still, they are 4-8 ATS in their last dozen starts against winning teams.

The under is 30-12-1 in Michigan State’s last 43 starts as an underdog, but the Spartans are on “over” surges of 8-0 against the Horizon League, 6-2 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a neutral-site pup, 4-0 as a Tourney ‘dog, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 after a SU win.

Butler is on an 11-5 “over” tear at neutral sites, and the over is on a 7-2 run with the Bulldogs as a neutral-site chalk. However, Butler also carries a host of “under” trends, including 8-1 overall (3-0 in the Tourney), 4-0 on Saturday, 6-1 as a favorite, 6-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-1 in non-conference contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE

(2) West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (33-5, 22-13-2 ATS)

The Blue Devils, the sole-surviving No. 1 seed in a Big Dance rife with upsets, look for their ninth consecutive victory when they take on the equally red-hot Mountaineers, winners of 10 in a row.

The last seven victories in Duke’s eight-game tear have come on neutral courts (the ACC tournament and the Big Dance). The Blue Devils have cashed in all four of their Tourney wins, including a trio of double-digit victories in the first three rounds before holding off Baylor 78-71 laying 4½ points in Sunday’s South Regional final in Houston. In its last five starts, Duke has outscored the opposition by nearly 14 ppg (70.8-57.2) and grabbed nearly nine rebounds more per contest (37.2-28.4).

West Virginia swept through three games to win the Big East tourney (0-3 ATS), then went 4-0 SU and ATS in the first two weekends of the Big Dance. That was capped by last Saturday’s 73-66 upset of top-seeded Kentucky as a four-point underdog in the East Regional final in Syracuse, N.Y. During the seven-game stretch, Kentucky was the only team to reach 60 points, as the Mountaineers allowed an average of just 55.9 ppg, while scoring 64.9.

Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances, including 14 in a row, and it is a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade. However, this is the Blue Devils’ first Final Four appearance since 2004, when it lost to UConn 79-78 in the semifinals as a 1½-point underdog. West Virginia, which received its highest seed in school history this year and is in its 23rd Tourney, has reached the Final Four for the first time since 1959.

These two schools squared off two years ago in the second round of the Tournament, with West Virginia nabbing a 73-67 victory as a four-point underdog. They also met in the second round in 1989, with Duke notching a 70-63 win.

Duke and West Virginia are both 11-0 SU on neutral courts this year, with the Blue Devils going 8-3 ATS and the Mountaineers going 6-5 ATS. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad has outscored opponents by more than 14 ppg (71.1-56.7) on neutral floors, and Bob Huggins’ troops have won by an average of 10.9 ppg (69.5-58.6).

Along with their 4-0 surge in the Tourney, the Blue Devils are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at neutral sites (all as a chalk), but they also shoulder Big Dance ATS skids of 6-11 a chalk and 2-6 when laying less than seven points. The Mountaineers are on ATS rolls of 12-2-1 in the Big Dance, 5-0-1 as a Tourney pup, 7-1 as a neutral-site pup, 7-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-0 outside the Big East and 5-1 against the ACC.

The over is 11-5 in West Virginia’s last 16 tilts as a neutral-site pup, but the under carries the day for both teams from there. Duke is on “under” tears of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 19-7 at neutral sites, 4-1 in the Tournament, 4-1 as a Tourney chalk and 9-4 against Big East opposition. The Mountaineers are on “under” streaks of 7-1 overall, 7-1 on neutral courts, 6-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 19-7 following a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports and MSNBC. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at PickNation.com