Thursday, July 29

7 Free Picks, all backed by In-Depth Analysis, plus more Rated Selections from the nation’s premier sports analysts, are available daily at PickNation.com

NEW YORK at CLEVELAND

Stephen Nover, Featured Handicapper

I am 46-27-1 with my past 74 free selections after cashing Wednesday on my complementary selection of the Pirates on the run line. I also cashed again on my paid selection with the underdog Athletics delivering as a 25 dime release.

On today’s somewhat limited card I’m going with another underdog – the Cleveland Indians – as my free pick. The Indians are 8-5 the last 13 times they’ve been underdogs. They are 11-6 in their past 17 home contests.These victories haven’t been flukes either with 10 of the victories during this span coming against Toronto, Detroit, Tampa and the Yankees, including defeating CC Sabathia two games ago.

The Yankees are mid-sized road favorites despite starting reliever Dustin Moseley, a fill-in replacement for injured Andy Pettitte. Moseley is making his first start since April of 2009 when he was with the Angels. He is 5-4 with a 5.69 ERA in 23 career starts. Only twice in those starts has he pitched into the seventh inning.

The Indians are going with rookie Mitch Talbot. He’s 8-9 with a 4.08 ERA. I find Talbot an underrated pitcher, though, due to the schedule he’s faced. He’s only gone against two teams that have a losing record. He had a career-high eight strikeouts in his last start this past Saturday versus Tampa Bay. Talbot retired the first eight batters he faced, including striking out six of them, but ended up allowing five runs in 5 2/3 innings. Prior to that start, Talbot’s ERA was 3.89 over 18 starts.

The Indians have been getting great relief pitching from closer Chris Perrez, who has been filling in for Kerry Wood. Perez hasn’t allowed a run in 12 straight appearances. During this span, he’s struck out 11 while giving up five hits.

5* CLEVELAND with both pitchers listed (on a 1* to 5* Scale)

LOS ANGELES at SAN DIEGO

By Bobby Maxwell, Featured Handicapper

I got the FREE winner on Wednesday with the Red Sox as they took down the Angels in Anaheim and improved my comp record to 125-113-3. Today, I have freebie on the Padres as they host the Dodgers in the finale of this three-game series.

It’s the rubber match of this big three-game series in San Diego between these rivals and I’m going with the better pitcher in this game in young Padres’ right-hander Mat Latos (11-4, 2.48 ERA).

The Dodgers took the opener of this one on Tuesday, 2-0, then San Diego won Wednesday’s contest, 6-1. The win snapped a four-game home losing streak the Padres had to the Dodgers in San Diego.

Latos has been San Diego’s best pitcher this season and he has a 3-0 record in his last three starts with a 0.86 ERA. He’s allowed just two runs in his last 21 innings, striking out 22 and walking just four. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in seven straight starts and on Saturday he held the Pirates to two runs in six innings of a 9-2 Padres victory in Pittsburgh. His last home start was July 2 when he threw eight innings of shutout ball against the Astros, allowing four hits in the 3-0 win.

Vicente Padilla (4-3, 3.41 ERA) has pitched well lately for the Dodgers, even though they have lost his last two outings. He gave up two runs to the Mets on Friday and Los Angeles fell 6-1 at home. His last start against the Padres came in June of 2006 when he gave up four runs in 5.1 innings of a 6-5 loss.

The Dodgers offense has really struggled lately and they have scored two runs or less in eight of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, San Diego has managed five runs or more in eight of its last 11.

Los Angeles is on slides of 1-6 when Padilla starts on the road, 1-5 in their last six roadies and 0-5 when they are an underdog. The Padres are on several positive runs, including 7-0 as a home favorite, 7-1 in the third game of a series, 7-1 at home, 9-3 overall, 39-18 as a favorite, 7-0 in Latos’ last seven outings and 4-1 when he’s a home chalk.

Look for San Diego to win this one and Latos to deliver a gem. Play the Padres.

4* SAN DIEGO (on a 1* to 5* Scale)

Al DeMarco, General Manager of PickNation.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports and MSNBC. Watch his Free Pick Daily Video report – available weekdays by 2:00 P.M. Eastern and weekends by 10 A.M. Eastern – at PickNation.com